Tag Archives: Jeff Hornaceck

An Analytical Dive into New York’s Newest Addition: Derrick Rose

So…if you haven’t heard, this happened:

*Sigh* I, am not thrilled. I could go on a tangent, but I thought Seth Rosenthal said it much better than I could ever articulate,

I do not remotely understand putting such a package together for Rose. One should be able to get someone with his injury history and contract (and ongoing sexual assault suit) for pretty much nothing. Robin Lopez is a very good player on a very good contract, not someone who gets lumped into such a trade, Jerian Grant is a valuable asset as well, and there was no longer any financial pressure to get rid of Calderon.

The Knicks should be *getting* those kind of assets for taking Rose off the Bulls’ hands, not surrendering them. Even if Rose were his near MVP-level self and a very desirable asset, he’s a free agent *next year*.

There seems to be two main lines of thinking with this trade. The first is that Derrick Rose is still an MVP caliber a very good basketball player, which umm…well…we will get to that shortly. The other reasoning is that this is the first in a line of moves that will end up with a player of Kevin Durant’s caliber in NY. Hope springs eternal, but that’s why we have smart people like Robert Silverman to bring us back to reality:

I’m not super upset with the trade itself, but rather what it represents. The Knicks are #allin on trying to land a big-name free agent (or two or three) over the next couple of offseasons. I’m not sure if they believe Derrick Rose can be one of those guys, but he is the first step in that process. However, star free agents hardly ever leave their respective teams, Lebron being the most recent exception, and even then do they rarely end with good results. I won’t admonish the Knicks for trying to build the best squad possible, but don’t surrender your very few assets on the off-chance you obtain a player who slightly resembles his former MVP-self (which is now five years and three significant injuries ago). Can you name a former all-star that suffered multiple severe injuries and returned to form? I can’t, but we have several example of great careers derailed by injuries: Penny Hardaway, Tracy Mcgrady, Brandon Roy, Grant Hill, and I’m being generous with this list too.

hi-res-183192523-derrick-rose-of-the-chicago-bulls-looks-on-during-the_crop_north
via Bleacher Report

What I find most confounding is what I heard from The Vertical Podcast with Woj. On this particular podcast covering this exact trade, Woj had this to say (I cut out some of the filler),

“I am shocked at how much the Knicks gave up for him (Rose). Robin Lopez was the best contract on the team…that was the best free agent signing the Knicks had made. There was no market for Derrick Rose, there was nowhere for him to go. They had been shopping him, I was told they had shopped him at the trade deadline last year…to me it’s surprising the Knicks didn’t wait/holdout. To me, they should have taken him into space and given up next to nothing.”

Ugh. There were no other suitors. You should be getting assets back for making this deal, not giving them up. Ironically, it was literally a year ago that I defended Phil Jackson for not making any impetuous decisions. Acquiring Derrick Rose is not necessarily a “panic move” in a vacuum, but for what I believe the Knicks are attempting to do, it just may be. Derrick Rose was once the league MVP, and he is now arguably not much better than a bottom tier starting point guard. This is the same team that traded for Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury (among others) after their respective peaks, of course they would do the same with a broken Derrick Rose.

Rose is not an aesthetically pleasing basketball player to watch in the year 2016. His game revolves around reckless drives to the hoop, contested long 2’s, and a glaring lack of defense. Coincidentally, the pace & space era kicked into gear right around when Rose caught the injury bug. So, sure, trade for a point guard who just shot 29% from behind the arc. At least Calderon converted  41% of his threes the last two seasons. But the Knicks don’t want Rose for that. They believe his ability to drive to the paint can help facilitate the pick & roll and find clean looks for Melo and Porzingis. And for this, and this alone, they just may be right.

For the Bulls last season, Rose ran 563 Pick & Rolls as the ball handler. The Bulls scored on 41.4% of those plays, which translated to 0.84 points per possession. That’s the 30th best (17th among point guards) conversion rate among ball handlers who ran at least 250 possessions last season. Rose drove to the hoop 8.9 times per game in 2016, the 13th most in the NBA (Calderon, on the other hand, only averaged 2.2 drives per game). Of all the players who averaged at least 5 drives per game last season, Rose had the fifth-lowest pass percentage, dishing the rock only 23.3% of the time.

In theory, having weapons like KP and Melo will improve these numbers. Phil Jackson and Jeff Hornaceck even said so in their press conference on Thursday. But please remember, everything sounds better in theory and this current construct of a team is one giant question mark.

With that established, there are lots of potential downsides to Rose as well. Let us delve into Rose’s past season stats a bit more (you may have to enlarge the photo below).

MVP Rose v. Current Rose (stats via basketball-reference.com)
MVP Rose v. Current Rose (stats via basketball-reference.com)

To start, his shooting percentages are bad, very bad.

Good thing baseline jumpers are incredibly valuable!!
2016: Good thing baseline jumpers are incredibly valuable!!

He could make up for the fact that he doesn’t shoot well from anywhere on the floor by getting to the free throw line, but his fear of contact means he only averaged 2.7 FTA per game. At his peak, he was getting to the charity stripe 6.9 times a game. Opponents now know he won’t be able to beat you from range, so they are daring him to drive on them. More often than not, they are correct in their assumption that Rose is afraid of contact (I would be too with all of those injuries), and his FG% at the rim suffers.

Of the 105 guards who played in more than 50 games and averaged 20 or more minutes a game, Rose had the 15th highest Usage % at 27.0%. Of those same players, Rose had the 96th best True Shooting % at 47.9% (and his FT% probably brings that number up a bit as well). TS%, a shooting percentage adjusted for three pointers and free throws, is a good measurement for scoring efficiency. The only player in 2016 with a higher USG% and lower TS% was, that’s right, Kobe Bryant. Not ideal company.

On a per game basis, Rose averaged 4.7 APG, good enough for 30th in the league among qualified players, 22 of which were point guards. But assists often overly rely on teammates’ shooting percentages. Assist opportunities might be a better metric. He had 9.2 potential assists per game, good enough for 32nd in the NBA (24th among point guards, one spot behind Jose Calderon), and a 1.78 Assist to turnover ratio. Not terrible, but not great either.

Now let’s get to the good stuff, the advanced metrics. In Rose’s 2011 MVP season, he had a Win Share/48 minutes of 0.208 (11th best in the league), a Value Over Replacement Player of 6.0 (third best), and a Box Plus Minus of 5.9 (tied for third best).

The following stats extend to players who played at least 50 games and at least 20 minutes per game in 2015-2016. This past season Rose had a WS/48 of 0.09 (133rd of 143 players), a VORP of -0.7 (132nd of 143 players), and a BPM of -3.3 (123rd of 143 players).  That is…[sad emoji]. If you want to look at ESPN’s Real Plus Minus metric, Rose had a -4.27 RPM, or the 81st best of the 85 point guards in 2016. If we want to get a little more technical, we can look at Nylon Calculus’ Daily Real Adjusted Plus Minus Metric (or DRE). By this metric Rose had the second worst cumulative rating in the entire NBA (a total of -202.5).

But what if it’s not just Rose, but the players around him? Now the following stats are calculated as points per possession*100. All teams play at different paces, so some teams have more possessions per game than others (and typically score more). Thus, by estimating points per possession, we can evaluate how efficient an offense is run (a team scoring 110 points on 90 possessions is superior to a team scoring 112 points on 108 possessions, make sense?). Below are the Bulls’ 2016 splits with Rose on/off the floor:

via NBAwowy.com
via NBAwowy.com

The Bulls played 5.8 points per 100 possessions better without Derrick Rose on the floor last season. Now what happens if we remove the Bulls’ real star, Jimmy Butler, from the equation.

via NBAwowy.com
via NBAwowy.com

This means that the Bulls have outperformed their opponents by 12.0 points per 100 possessions with Jimmy Butler and without Derrick Rose. I like to call this the “DeMar DeRozan Effect” or the player looks like a valuable contributor on the floor, but all of the numbers tell us otherwise.

I’m not anti-Derrick Rose. Though it definitely may seem that way, I need my fellow Knick compatriots to understand why I will not call this a “good move.” I’ll concede that he played better after the All-star break, but the Bulls were still a middling offense and were 6.3 PPP better with Rose off of the floor (0.5 Offensive PPP better without him). Rose did not mesh well with all-star teammate Jimmy Butler when the two were healthy together in Chicago, so why is Melo, another ball dominant player with bad knees, going to suddenly make a better pairing? Rose and Carmelo  were both among the top 20 players in USG% last season, and both often need the ball in their hands to be effective. So what does this realistically mean for rising star Porzingis’ development with Rose in a contract year? That’s a good question, one that I don’t really have an answer for, but Porzingis should be the team’s real priority here.

I won’t put up a fuss over dumping Jose Calderon (though he was a very good 3pt shooter). Robin Lopez and Jerian Grant were by no means all-stars, but as assets they are/were valuable to the team. Lopez did a lot of the dirty work, setting screens and boxing out opponents to give Porzingis those opportunities for put-back dunks and open treys (the same plays that made him a Vine star). Lopez was often the Knicks’ most consistent player, and one of their few above average defenders. Trading him just so you can play Porzingis at the 5 seems shortsighted at best (though bringing over Hernangomez from Spain ideally lessens the loss of Lopez).

This same logic extends to second year player Jerian Grant. I won’t go so far as to say he was good last season, but there were multiple external factors that didn’t help his cause. The team focused heavily on the triangle for much of the season, after Grant played exclusively in the pick & roll in college. His struggle to adjust and the Knicks’ mess of a coaching situation did not do him any favors, though it was promising to see the rookie play well over the final few weeks of the season. With that said, he’s still a former first round pick who is under contract for at least three more years. New coach Jeff Hornaceck’s offense utilized a number of two point guard sets in Phoenix. If you’re going to have one PG on a max deal for the 2016 season (Rose), why not have a second on an increasingly advantageous deal as well? Also noteworthy: the Knicks are now in the market for a backup point guard, even with the addition of Ron Barker.

If Grant improves, and Lopez replicates his 2015 season, the Knicks would have had two great, tradeable assets moving forward as the salary cap explodes yet again (and everyone in the NBA becomes overpaid). Instead, they were given away to rent Derrick Rose for a season and a future second round pick. AND let us not forget that Rose is currently being investigated for sexual assault. You couldn’t fetch anything else, Phil?

The only real counterpoint to this trade is that Rose might achieve a level of play close to what it was five years ago. However, when factoring in all of above, I’m not sure how anyone can say that with confidence.

So what are the potential scenarios. Derrick Rose plays bad? The Knicks gain a better draft pick (though likely one not high enough to make much of a difference) and have more cap space in an offseason where 25 other teams will be in a similar position. Derrick Rose plays well? The Knicks’ draft pick isn’t as valuable and Rose either bolts in free agency or the Knicks overpay to keep him (I think he would be eligible for the 35% max with 4.5% annual raises — yuck). I really don’t see what the big advantage was on the NY side of this trade. The worst part of this move is the Knicks organization believe they just did something great, acquiring a former MVP. However, that’s the same guy who’s played in 166 games in the last four seasons (out of a possible 328, not including playoffs).

This isn’t the worst trade this team has made (there are quite a few!), but it’s an unnecessary risk for a team with no proven track record of attracting marquee free agents. To put all your eggs in that basket (this basket = we believe Kevin Durant will come to the Knicks) might work, but historical trends tell us otherwise. I’ve seen this movie before, and it ends with Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose locked up for years to come. The lethal pairing of those two along with Melo would form the best core in the NBA…if the year were 2011 (hint: it’s not).

I believe I have provided more than enough evidence to refute how much better Rose makes this Knicks team. I’ve had people tell me he will improve with a healthy season under his belt. Well, who is to say that his last season (the healthy one) isn’t an outlier and regression to the mean means another injury-plagued 35 game season? It’s certainly up for discussion given the dude’s track record. I hope I’m wrong, I really do, because maybe this will work out somehow. I just don’t believe Derrick Rose is a very good basketball player anymore. Please see below for people who share similar sentiments.